2012 Australian Open Men's Preview

            Last season, it was really hard to believe and witness the rise of another Roger Federer so soon after Federer himself. The Australian Open is the first opportunity for Novak Djokovic to prove all the doubters wrong, who still don’t believe in his ability after one of the best season’s we have ever seen in the sport finishing with a 70-6 record including wins at the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. The crazy thing is that Djokovic told the media earlier this week that he wants to have a better season than last year.

            Djokovic is one of the many big story lines coming into the event, but among the draw (http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ms/r1s1.html) are other compelling story lines. Can Roger Federer rebound in 2012 and add another title to his record-breaking 16 Grand Slam championships. Was last year a decline for Federer? Or what condition is Rafael Nadal’s body in heading into the first big tournament of the year? His shoulder has been bothering him the last few weeks, but he feels it is not any problem. (http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=tennis/12/01/12/TENNIS_Australian_Open_Nadal.html) Another question people always ask is, where are the top four in the draw? This year the draw is completely different from any major in recent memory. If the draw holds form, Djokovic and Andy Murray will meet in the semis and Federer and Nadal will meet in the other semi, which hasn’t happened at a major since the 2005 French Open.

The Draw:

First Quarter

            Djokovic will use his first few matches to see were his game is at and test his fitness level early in the year. He doesn’t face any sort of threat until Radek Stepanek in the third round, Djokovic has won his last five matches against Stepanek. Andy Roddick poses some weapons against Djokovic, but Roddick hasn’t played a match in a couple months. As mentioned in the previous post, Milos Raonic has the game to make a big run in the tournament and he is in this quarter. The quarterfinal matchup will most likely be Djokvic against world number 5, David Ferrer of Spain. Ferrer should be able to take a set in that quarterfinal match, but Djokovic’s game will wear down the Spaniard.

Second Quarter

            This is Andy Murray’s quarter to win, but he will have an extremely tough opening match against teen American Ryan Harrison. This quarter doesn’t have the depth of great players compared to the other ones, but they have two of the most athletic players in the game. Frenchman Gael Monfils is the most entertaining guy in the sport to watch right now and he has played a lot of long matches in his career. If Monfils can engage in long rallies with Murray in the possible round of 16 encounter, he has good chances to pull off the upset. The other guy is Jo-Wilfried Tsgona also of France, Tsgona has had great success in Australia in the past finishing as the runner-up in 2008. Other than Monfils and Tsonga, there should not be any other dangerous foes for Murray besides his first round test with the young Harrison.

Third Quarter

            This is the most talented quarter with the likes of Mardy Fish, Juan Martin Del Potro, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Sam Querrey, Bernie Tomic, Fernando Verdasco, Jurgen Melzer, Ivo Karlovic, and of course Roger Federer. There are two first round matches I really like in this quarter, the hometown teen favorite Bernie Tomic against one of the top Spanish players Fernando Verdasco and then the aggressive playing Jurgen Melzer of Austria against the tallest player in the game Ivo Karlovic at 6’11.

            Federer missed the warm up tournament in Doha last week but it isn’t a big issue. He doesn’t have any challenging opponents until Verdasco in the fourth round, but Fernando has never beaten Roger before. What might help Federer most are his opponents. The highest ranked American Mardy Fish will have to face a dangerous player in Juan Martin Del Potro in the fourth round with the winner to see Federer. You can basically pencil in Federer’s name into the quarterfinals because he has been to the quarterfinals in his last 30 Grand Slam appearances. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fish or Del Potro made it to the semis beating Roger.

Bottom Quarter

            Rafael Nadal, like his fellow top seeds, should be able to find his range early from the draw he has. His first big test will come in the fourth round against either John Isner, David Nalbandian, or Nikolay Davydenko. Rafa will probably be rooting for someone else to get to the fourth round instead of the American Isner, who nearly took out Nadal in the French Open last year.

            Tomas Berdych, the Czech, is on the other half of this section and I feel he has the only shot in this draw to take out Rafa other than Isner, however, Berdych hasn’t had much success against Nadal in majors over his career.

PREDICTIONS:

Semifinals: Djokovic over Tsonga; Federer over Nadal

Final: Federer over Djokovic